David vs. Goliath 0–1

*Spe.* The U.S. space agency NASA is a powerful institution. And as such, it has many envious critics. That’s why the media gleefully exploits every misstep NASA makes. In early April, it happened again. Under the headline “I calculated the end of the world … and NASA said I’m right,” the German newspaper *Bild* reported on a 13-year-old student from Potsdam who, as part of the “Jugend forscht” competition, had calculated the probability that the asteroid Apophis would strike Earth in 2036. The student claimed the probability of impact was 1 in 450—a hundred times greater than what NASA experts had calculated.

A week later, the “Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten” reported that NASA had admitted its mistake. This story was picked up without verification by the French news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP) and subsequently spread like wildfire around the world.

Just one day later, on April 16, however, NASA denied ever having been asked about this matter and expressly stood by its original calculations. This report, too, spread like wildfire—though this time with a media-critical undertone.

This isn’t the first time Apophis has made headlines. For a brief time, it actually looked as though the asteroid—which is about 250 meters in diameter—could pose a threat to Earth if it were to

which will make its first close approach in 2029. Later, however, NASA gave the all-clear. Apophis will fly past Earth in 2029 at a safe distance of more than 30,000 kilometers. It’s not so easy to calculate how high the probability of a collision will be seven years later, when the asteroid approaches Earth for the second time. That’s because it depends on how much its orbit is disrupted during the first flyby. This is where the 13-year-old student stepped in. He calculated how the risk would change if one took into account that the asteroid could collide with a satellite in geostationary orbit in 2029. What the student didn’t know was that

NASA had been able to rule out this possibility with nearly 100 percent certainty based on the asteroid’s orbit.

Even some of the media outlets that picked up the story are having trouble admitting their mistake. For example, the German news magazine “Focus” did remove the false report from its website that same evening. However, when asked, the online editorial team stated that the report was not important enough to warrant a correction. The fact that the powerful NASA retains the upper hand simply doesn’t sell as well as a David-versus-Goliath victory. *From NZZ, April 23, 2008*